Key decisions on Stonehenge Tunnel, HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail needed in 2023

Key decisions on the country’s major infrastructure projects are expected in 2023.

Over the course of the next 12 months, transport secretary Mark Harper will have to make big decisions on the country’s planned road building schemes with planning rulings needed in relation to the Stonehenge Tunnel, Lower Thames Crossing and the A66 upgrade among a number of other planned road upgrades.

Harper will also be required to make decisions in relation to the country’s planned railway upgrades with big question marks hanging over the futures of Northern Powerhouse Rail and East West Rail.

Meanwhile, major decisions will need to be taken in relation to the country’s biggest infrastructure project itself, with the bill to construct HS2’s Phase 2b between Manchester and Crewe continuing to make its way through examination and the study to connect HS2 to Leeds expected to get underway.

Stonehenge Tunnel

Transport secretary Mark Harper has inherited the dubious task of “re-determining” the planning application for the Stonehenge Tunnel.

Former transport secretary Grant Shapps originally approved the scheme’s development consent order in 2020, however the decision was ruled “unlawful” by a High Court judge.

Having spent most of last year asking for more evidence from National Highways, Shapps then passed the decision on to Anne-Marie Trevelyan who took up the transport secretary post under Liz Truss, before Harper assumed the role following Rishi Sunak’s appointment as prime minister.

The current plans are for a 12.8km dual carriageway, and a 3.2km tunnel underneath the World Heritage Site closely following the existing A303 route.

The cost of the scheme has also become a cause for concern, with the expected cost increasing from £1.7bn to £2.4bn.

A big part of redetermining the application is looking at the environmental and carbon impact of the proposed scheme in relation to government commitments and legislation. Harper will also have to prove that he has considered an alternative scheme for a longer tunnel.

Despite the lack of progress on the planning application, National Highways selected a joint venture comprising Spain’s FCC Construcción, Italian firm WeBuild and BeMo Tunnelling from Austria to deliver the £1.25bn contract for the tunnel, along with the main construction work for the A303 Amesbury to Berwick Down scheme past Stonehenge.

In the past year, National Highways also awarded its £60M Delivery Assurance Partner contract to Costain and Mott MacDonald.

A66 upgrade

There will be another decision for Harper to make in 2023 relating to another major road building scheme.

A decision on the A66 upgrade’s development consent order is due by the end of the year, following the Planning Inspectorate’s examination.

The estimated cost of the scheme has recently risen from an originally budgeted £1bn to a newly calculated £1.3bn. A benefit cost ratio analysis carried out by the DfT says that the scheme is now “poor value for money”.

Despite this, the DfT has decided to continue with the project and is hopeful that “there are opportunities for cost reduction in the next stage of the project”.

The scheme will see the remaining 29km of single carriageway sections of the road dualled and key junctions between M6 Junction 40 (Penrith) and the A1 at Scotch Corner improved.

In October, a joint venture between Balfour Beatty, Costain, Keltbray and Kier officially signed a £1.3bn contract to upgrade the A66 known as the Northern Transpennine project.

Lower Thames Crossing

The biggest decision Harper may have to take in 2023, could be in relation to the planning application for the Lower Thames Crossing scheme.

Revised plans for the scheme were submitted in November 2022, almost two years after the original application was pulled after the Planning Inspectorate asked for more information on environmental impact assessments and construction plans.

The Planning Inspectorate appointed its panel of examining officers in December, with the examination phase expected to be formally launched in January.

There will then be a six month examination period before planners take three months to write up their recommendation report. If everything goes to plan, Harper may be required to rule on the Lower Thames Crossing application shortly before the end of 2023 – in reality the process is likely to be pushed into 2024 considering the size and complexity of the scheme.

HS2

There are bid decisions to be made on the country’s biggest infrastructure project in 2023, both for politicians and the project’s promoters and designers.

The hybrid bill needed to construct phase 2b of the project between Manchester and Crewe will continue to make its way through Parliament next year after it passed through its second parliamentary reading, winning the vote by 2055 ayes to six noes in June 2022.

Having passed the vote, the HS2 Phase 2b bill is now at the committee stage, where it is being scrutinised by a group of selected MPs.

This group will examine each clause and listen to petitions from interested parties who want to make amendments to the bill. These could be relatively small amendments such as where a bridge will be built or the placement of a tunnel portal, but the committee will also likely hear petitions on building an underground Manchester Piccadilly if brought forward, probably by the city council. The committee may decide to listen to petitions to reinstate the Golborne link, if someone wishes to make that argument.

The committee phase could take many months, depending how many petitions are brought before them. The bill for HS2 Phase 1 had nearly 2,000 petitions and took almost three years for all to be heard and some amendments to be added. The bill for HS2 Phase 2a had only 35 petitions but still took two years to reach Royal Assent, although this was impacted by the pandemic.

Following the completion of petitions, the hybrid bill will then return to the House of Commons where any amendments made by the committee are reported. Any MPs who were not part of the committee can suggest last minute amendments. The Speaker will select certain amendments for debate, if deemed necessary. The bill will then undergo its third reading in the House of Commons, usually immediately following the reading of the committee’s amendments.

After passing its third reading, the bill will be moved into the House of Lords where it will undergo the same process of three readings with an option to amend. If amendments are made at this point, it will be sent back to the House of Commons to be considered. Only once the House of Commons and the House of Lords have both agreed upon the amended bill will it receive Royal Assent and become an Act of Parliament, paving the way for construction to begin.

Another big question for the project going forward is its connection to Leeds. In July 2022, the Transport Select Committee published its report into the Integrated Rail Plan, which said that the government had not carried out benefit cost ratio analyses for the eastern leg of HS2, which would connect it to Leeds.

New transport minister Huw Merriman has called for a proper business case to be drawn up and says he is committed to ensuring this happens. The DfT is undertaking a study to look at connecting HS2 trains to Leeds but this will take between 18 months and two years, according to Transport for the North (TfN).

Northern Powerhouse Rail

Clarity on the future of the proposed Northern Powerhouse Rail network has been long called for but so far non existent.

The government has committed to delivering the “core” Northern Powerhouse Rail route, but what exactly is meant by that is still up for interpretation.

Neither Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, nor documents released alongside the Autumn Statement, specified what was meant by “core" NPR. However, it is likely to relate to the promises made in the Integrated Rail Plan rather than former prime minister Liz Truss’ promise to deliver the line in full from Hull to Liverpool with a station at Bradford.

Whatever the decision, clarity on the government’s intentions must be a priority for the next 12 months.

East West Rail

The future of EWR – a new line between Oxford and Cambridge connecting up small settlements in between – has been in doubt for months now.

While the first of its three connection stages (CS1) is well underway, the completion of the whole line was thrown into doubt by Grant Shapps during his short-lived leadership campaign when he said he would save government money by scrapping the last two stages (CS2 and CS3).

However, before the Autumn Statement, East West Railway Company chief executive Beth West said that the planning process and route selection would begin if the project was backed by Hunt.

Following the Autumn Statement, which did back the scheme, West said that the government’s commitment to EWR "reflects how important this project is for both economic growth and the quality of life in this area".

Next year will be the real test with decisions (and commitments) needed for the next phases of the scheme.

Hammersmith Bridge

The completion of stabilisation to Hammersmith Bridge is due to come to an end in February, marking the end of the first phase of repair work.

A planning application for Foster + Partners double decker solution to aid permenant repairs is due to be submitted by Spring, according to a Hammersmith & Fulham Council report issued in October.

Later in Spring, April or May, the council will also start procurement for the permanent repairs.

This is, of course, all subject to TfL and DfT agreeing to foot a third of the repair bill respectively as previously agreed.

Other things to keep an eye on in 2023:

Plans for new reservoirs are likely to progress in 2023, with Portsmouth Water and Anglia Water both forging ahead with proposals.
The government has committed to updating National Policy Statements in relation to energy, transport and water resources during 2023 which could have a huge impact on what does or does not get planning approval.
What next for Great British Railways? Transport Secretary Mark Harper has suggested that “alternatives” for the GBR plan will be considered, so it will be interesting if Shapps plan is kiboshed.
Just like Hammersmith Bridge, Newcastle’s Tyne Bridge is also in desperate need of repairs and will need funding and a plan in 2023
The rail industry will be hoping that 2023 will produce the long-awaited Rail enhancements pipeline after years of delays.
Plans for a number of tidal lagoons are likely to hit the headlines next year. While the Swansea Bay project may have officially been sunk at the backend of 2022, other projects include the Mersey Tidal Lagoon are likely to progress next year.
The push for nuclear power is likely to gather pace next year with advancements for Sizewell C expected along with progress on plans for small modular reactors.
Airport expansions could also be back on the table in 2023, with Heathrow, Gatwick and London City Airport among those who could restart their paused proposals.