Heathrow runway ruling sends ripples

The Court of Appeal decision to outlaw Heathrow Airport’s third runway plan has left its expansion plans in limbo. It has also rocked the aviation sector’s growth plans and threatened to hit the UK’s wider infrastructure pipeline. 

Lord Justice Lindblom ruled that the government’s Airports National Policy Statement – which paved the way for the third runway – failed to consider the government’s climate change commitments under the 2016 Paris Agreement to cut carbon emissions. 

Unlawful third runway

Consequently he ruled that the third runway proposal could not proceed as the policy statement was unlawful as it breaks net zero carbon emission laws implemented by former prime minister Theresa May’s government before last year’s General Election. 

Operator Heathrow Airport Ltd (HAL) said it would challenge the ruling in the Supreme Court, but for the time being its plans are in limbo. 

Meanwhile, rival bidders to expand Heathrow have welcomed the ruling. Heathrow Hub and Heathrow West have declared their separate proposals to be less environmentally damaging than HAL’s expansion plan. 

Heathrow Hub said the judgement – along with the government’s decision not to appeal to the Supreme Court – means HAL’s third runway proposal is “effectively dead”. Heathrow Hub founder Jock Lowe said: “This is our ‘we told you so’ moment. There was always a huge risk that the unnecessarily complicated and expensive third runway would fail on environmental grounds and that Boris Johnson would stop it, and so it has proved.” 

'Only viable option'

Heathrow Hub says its plan to extend the airport’s northern runway is now the “only viable option”. It says its proposal is much cheaper and less environmentally damaging than HAL’s plans, which will make it easier for the UK to meet its net zero carbon target by 2050. The plan has an independently verified safety case and has been deemed viable by the government’s Airports Commission. The court did, however, rule against Heathrow Hub’s proposal – but Lowe said it too will appeal the decision at the Supreme Court.

A spokesperson for the Arora Group – another company with rival Heathrow West plans – said that the group “remains an unwavering supporter of Heathrow expansion so long as environmental disruption is minimised”. The group believes its plans to design, develop and operate Heathrow West – a new terminal and a new runway – will “revolutionise the airport”, ensuring the expansion is “efficient and cost effective” versus the expensive and inefficient plans put forward by HAL. NCE understands that this proposal also requires the court ruling to be overturned.

The Heathrow decision has cast doubt on planned expansions at other airports including Luton, Gatwick and Doncaster Sheffield. 

But demand for air travel is growing. According to forecasts from the Department for Transport (DfT), UK air passenger demand could reach 380M passengers per year by 2030, compared to 267M in 2016. By 2050 – the government’s target for net zero emissions – the figure could reach 535M. 

Rail alternative

One way to release airport capacity without the need for major expansions could be to improve the country’s rail infrastructure. 

A high speed rail network with connections to airports would allow the UK to operate more international flights without the need for major airport expansions, according to Expedition Engineering director Alistair Lenczner.

He was previously part of the design team which worked on the Inner Thames Estuary Airport proposal, also known as Boris Island. Lenczner believes that improving rail connections to UK
airports is critical. He told NCE that this is now the only realistic way to free up international flight slots, following the Heathrow expansion ruling. 

In particular, Lenczner believes that Expedition Engineering’s HS4Air rail proposal to connect Heathrow and Gatwick to High Speed 2 and High Speed 1 should now be seriously considered.

The proposal was previously put to the DfT under the government’s call for market led proposals for rail expansion. It has not yet been taken forward. 

“Now that Heathrow’s plan to build a third runway has been declared unlawful it is likely to have a significant impact on how the UK plans its future infrastructure. The decision suggests that the UK needs to look at more radical ways to allow it to maintain international connectivity while taking into account the Paris climate agreement,” Lenczner told NCE. 

No more domestic flights

“If HS4Air were built then there would be no need to have domestic flights into Heathrow or Gatwick from the north of England or even Scotland as both airports would be readily accessible by fast, direct trains. 

“Landing slots currently used by domestic flights could then be made available for international flights.”

Lenczner also sees HS4Air as the start of a complete change of mindset when it comes to airport connectivity. In fact, he believes that the UK could eventually be served by as few as five or six regional airport hubs, if adequate rail connections were put in place. He suggests that providing rail links to ensure that 90% of the population is within 90 minutes of an airport would allow the UK to reduce the number of airports to five or six international hubs, dramatically reducing the environmental impact on the country.

But the impact of the court ruling is likely to reach beyond the UK’s aviation sector. An NCE investigation carried out last year revealed that Heathrow’s third runway, the Lower Thames Crossing road tunnel and the Sizewell C nuclear plant were among dozens of projects whose plans would have to be redrafted to comply with new net zero legislation. The courts now support this conclusion, with Justice Lindblom ruling that expansion plans failed to consider environmental laws.

Projects applying for development consent order (DCOs), and which are sitting at the pre-examination or pre-approval stage are most likely to be face challenges. DCOs are handled by the
Planning Inspectorate and are required for large scale projects which are deemed to be of “national interest”. 

In total, NCE’s investigation revealed that 64 applications were at the pre-examination or pre-approval stage. Nineteen of these are road projects, six relate to rail works, while 27 are energy projects.

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