TfL prioritises DLR and Northern line upgrades over Crossrail 2 and Bakerloo line extension

Released as part of board meeting agenda notes for 30 September, TfL’s report Investment to get London and the UK moving again sets out a revised list of major projects which it is hoping to complete during the next decade.

Major schemes named include extending the DLR to Thamesmead and upgrading Camden Town station and the Northern line.

The report concedes that other major projects such as Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo line extension will not be realistically affordable before 2030.

“We are being realistic about what is affordable over the next decade,” the report states.

“Very large projects from the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, particularly Crossrail 2 and Bakerloo Line Extension, are still relevant and aligned to the Department for Transport’s decarbonisation plan.

“However, given current affordability constraints, our immediate priority for these is safeguarding, although they are still likely to be needed in the future to support long term growth and modal shift in London.”

Since the government’s original decision to remove the operating grant in 2015, TfL relies on a combination of fares, the congestion charge and advertising for its revenue.

However it lost over 90% of passengers as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and, going forward, tube trains operate at a reduced capacity to adhere to social distancing.

As such, TfL secured a £1.6bn bailout from the government in May following the steep drop in revenue – but Khan has previously stressed that a “continuing operating grant” is needed to maintain services after the “sticking plaster” deal.

The board meeting agenda papers reveal that TfL has now spent all of the £1.6bn grant, however it has not needed to use an additional £300M safeguarded by the government should it need it. A new deal is expected to be in place within the next two weeks.

Consequently, the papers reveal that TfL has introduced “stringent measures to control expenditure […] pausing all new non-critical spend”.

It adds that a £2bn annual funding gap needs to be plugged and it is asking for £4.9bn to continue operating until the end of 2021/22, “which will enable us to successfully achieve everything set out in our revised budget”. A further £750M is needed to fund cost overruns on Crossrail.

DLR extension to Thamesmead

Cost: Around £800M

Delivery schedule: 2026-30

What TfL says: “Extending the Beckton branch of the DLR across the river supports the regeneration of the Thamesmead and Abbey Wood Opportunity Area and would also unlock growth at Beckton Riverside. The extension would improve connectivity across the river in some relatively deprived areas of London and increase capacity to support growth

“Supporting up to 20,000 new homes across the Thamesmead and Abbey Wood and Royal Docks and Beckton Riverside Opportunity Areas. At least 8,000 jobs in Thamesmead, and potentially more at Beckton Riverside.”

Camden Town and Northern line separation

Cost: £0.6-1.3bn

Delivery schedule: 2024-28

What TfL says: “If we purchase a new fleet of trains for the Jubilee line, we can add some of the current Jubilee line fleet to the Northern line. This would enable an unprecedented capacity upgrade to our most used line. We can do this by upgrading Camden Town station and separating the branches of the Northern line, effectively adding a new ‘Northern line 2’ line to the network.

“At least 25 per cent capacity increase on both the Northern line and the new ‘Northern line 2’ – created from the Charing Cross branch, via Kennington and Battersea with the completed Northern Line Extension. This would enable at least 20,000 additional people to be transported per hour.”

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